Key contenders - TDF 2025

Key contenders

In another post i will be covering the route of this years Tour de France, but after alls the riders make the race, so let’s look at some of the key contenders in this years Tour de France.

Gc contenders

The favourite

When talking about the favorites to win this year’s Tour de France and wear the maillot jaune in Paris, it is impossible to overlook the World Champion, Tadej Pogačar riding for  UAE Team Emirates XRG He has looked almost unbeatable over the last couple of years also so far this this season where he has taken the overall victory at the UAE Tour and the Critérium du Dauphiné (with 2 and 3 stage wins respectively), as well as triumphing in Strade Bianche, the Tour of Flanders, Flèche Wallonne, and Liège–Bastogne–Liège and podiuming races like: Paris-Roubaix, Milano-Sanremo, and the Amstel Gold Race, underlining just how complete and consistent his dominance has been. His palmeres at just 26 years old speaks for itself with 99 professional wins including 3 Tour de France overall victories with 17 stage wins, a Giro d’Italia GC win with 6 stage victories, four Il Lombardia titles, three Liège–Bastogne–Liège wins, two Tour of Flanders victories, and a road race world champion title. With this domination in mind and his pretty superior win in I Dauphine against some of the other main contenders a few weeks before the Tour the least you can say is that he is the favourite.

His palmarès at just 26 years old speaks for itself with 99 professional wins, including 3 Tour de France overall victories with 17 stage wins, a Giro d’Italia GC win with 6 stage victories, four Il Lombardia titles, three Liège–Bastogne–Liège wins, two Tour of Flanders victories, and a World Championship title in the road race. With that level of dominance in mind and his pretty superior victory at the Critérium du Dauphiné just a few weeks before the Tour, against several of his main rivals it is fair to say he’s the favorite.

The challenger

But who can challenge him? Over the past four years, the rider who has come closest to Tadej Pogačar is Danish star Jonas Vingegaard riding for Team Visma | Lease a Bike who even got the better of him twice, in 2022 and 2023 where he won the TDF. Last year, however, he finished over six minutes behind Pogačar, though it is worth noting that he was recovering from a serious crash at the Itzulia Basque Country just months earlier and his presence at the Tour was doubtful for a long time. Despite that, he still managed to be Pogačar’s closest rival, and he is expected to play that role again this year.

Unlike Pogačar, Vingegaard hasn’t had a standout season so far. He picked up the overall win and a stage victory at the Volta ao Algarve, and helped his team to a TTT win in Paris–Nice before crashing out with a concussion. After that he did not race again until the Dauphiné, where Pogačar had the upper hand. It looks hard for Jonas to challenge the winning-machine Pogačar, but he also was not the favorite when he won the Tour in 2022.

The Podium candidates

The podium has three spots, so who are the top contenders for that third place? And who might be able to challenge the two superstars, Pogačar and Vingegaard?

One name in this category is last year’s third-place finisher and double Olympic champion, Remco Evenepoel riding for Soudal Quick-Step. In 2023 Evenepoel showed that he has the strength to fight for the podium at the Tour, and with an early flat time trial in Caen, there is also a good chance he could wear yellow for some days. However, at the Dauphiné, he did not quite look like he had closed the gap to Pogačar and Vingegaard. Despite winning the stage 4-time trial, he ultimately finished over four minutes behind Pogačar. He ended up fourth overall, behind the two big favorites and Florian Lipowitz. Remco himself blamed some of his performance on allergies, and he also had a crash on stage 5.

Speaking of Lipowitz, who rides for Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, could he be a dark horse for the GC at the Tour? Maybe—but he has stated that his role will be to support his teammate, reigning Vuelta a España champion Primož Roglič. Despite a rather underwhelming spring, including a DNF at the Giro d’Italia after multiple crashes, Roglič is still a strong podium candidate. The real question with him is whether he can avoid the bad luck and crashes that have haunted several of his Grand Tour campaigns. Because when he stays upright, he nearly always lands on the podium.

Another honorable mention for a potential podium spot is Tadej Pogačar’s teammate João Almeida. He recently demonstrated impressive form at the Tour de Suisse, where he took the overall victory along with three stage wins. Last year, he finished fourth in the Tour de France GC, so maybe this year he can take a step up to the podium if he has the freedom to do so?

Other GC candidates

A top 10 finish at the Tour de France is a big achievement for many riders, and who knows, maybe one of these GC outsiders could even surprise and sneak onto the podium. But who are the main names to watch in this category?

First, Jonas Vingegaard will be backed by a strong support squad, several of whom have already proven themselves to be GC riders. Most notably, recent Giro d’Italia winner Simon Yates will be at the start to help out Jonas and maybe he could also get a great GC result himself, if the race dynamics and team strategy allow him the freedom to do so, as it will not be the team’s first priority, although multiple riders in the GC might be a part of their strategy?

Then there is Sepp Kuss, winner of the 2023 Vuelta a España, who finished 12th in last year’s Tour. He narrowly missed out on a top 10 after a crash on stage 20. Since his Vuelta victory, he has not quite hit the same level of form, but if he rediscovers it and perhaps even improves a bit he could contend again, although again it will not be the first priority of the team as he will be on teammate duties for Jonas Vingegaard.

Matteo Jorgenson, who placed 8th in the Tour last year while also helping Jonas, is another strong card for Visma. He has shown great form in 2024, winning Paris–Nice and placing 6th in the Dauphiné. In short, if Vingegaard’s teammates don’t end up using all their energy to support him, several of them could very well land in the top 10 themselves.

On the UAE side, Adam Yates, the twin brother of Simon, will again likely play a key support role for Tadej Pogačar. He finished 3rd in the 2023 Tour but may sacrifice his own result this time in service of Pogačar. Still, his level is high enough to finish well up in the GC if the opportunity presents itself.

But it is not just UAE and Visma with GC ambitions there is also Ben O’Connor of Team Jayco AlUla, who deserves a mention. He finished 2nd in the 2023 Vuelta and 4th in the Giro. While he has not shown the same level of form this season, it would be unwise to rule him out for a strong GC performance.

Two other names to keep an eye on are the Spaniards Enric Mas (Movistar Team) and Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers), both of whom have achieved notable GC results in recent years and could be contenders for a top 10 finish at the Tour.

Other honorable mentions include Mattias Skjelmose of Lidl–Trek, who finished 5th in last year’s Vuelta a España, winning the white jersey as best young rider. Also worth noting is Lenny Martinez, the young Frenchman who has been a bit inconsistent this year, finishing 28th overall in the Dauphiné but managing to win the final stage from a breakaway. He also took 2nd place overall at the Tour de Romandie behind João Almeida, showing that if he is at his best he can ride a great GC, and it will not take much to improve his result from last year where he finished 124th 

Sprinters

Not only the climbers will be chasing glory at this year’s Tour de France, some of the heavier riders will also be on the hunt for glory. While they will not be looking forward to the mountain stages, they will be targeting the flat ones, hunting for stage wins. This year the first stage of the Tour is a sprint stage, so these are also the names that are likely to be fighting for that yellow jersey on stage 1.

The Top sprinters

This year, the sprint field at the Tour de France is very strong, with both Jonathan Milan (Lidl–Trek) and Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) on the start line in Lille. It will be the first Tour for the 24-year-old Milan, while Merlier returns after not contending the Tour since 2021 where he won a sprint stage, ahead of Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), who is also back and looking for more success. Philipsen has won no fewer than nine stages across the last three Tours and will once again be among the top favourites. But this year, he will face serious competition from what might be the two best sprinters in the peloton, Merlier and Milan. Perhaps this Tour will give us a clearer picture of who truly is the fastest sprinter in the bunch?

Other sprint contenders

These aren’t the only fast men lining up in Lille. Last year’s triple stage winner - and green jersey champion Biniam Girmay (Intermarché–Wanty) will also be there aiming for more glory at the Tour this year, although he has been rather invinsible since his Tour de France success last year. Other fast guts includes, but is not limited to.

• Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X Mobility)

• Pascal Ackermann (Israel–Premier Tech)

• Tobias Lund Andresen (Team dsm–firmenich PostNL)

• Arnaud De Lie (Lotto Dstny)

Stage Hunters to Watch

Then there are a number of other notable riders who will be hunting for stage glory, (along with many unmentioned names). One of the most notable is Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), who, alongside Tadej Pogačar, has been one of the dominant forces in the spring classics. Since 2020, he has won no fewer than eight Monuments: three Tours of Flanders, three Paris–Roubaix, and two Milan–Sanremo.

Interestingly, Van der Poel has flown somewhat under the radar in both the 2023 and 2024 Tours, with his best stage result being just 11th place. Still, he has proven he can shine at the Tour de France. In 2021, he won Stage 2 to Mûr-de-Bretagne and took the yellow jersey, and the Mûr-de-Bretagne finish will be used again in Stage 7 of this year’s race.

If he has not already won a stage before then, Mûr-de-Bretagne could be the perfect place for Mathieu to take his second Tour de France stage win, though multiple earlier stages also suit him well.

His long-time rival, Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike), is another name to watch. The two have battled for years both on the road and in cyclo-cross. While van der Poel has gotten the better of Wout when it comes to the spring classics, Wout has looked stronger in the Tour (and other grand tours). He has helped his leaders to overall victories while also collecting stage wins himself. Whereas Van der Poel has two Grand Tour stage wins (one in the Giro and one in the Tour), Van Aert has 13: one in the Giro, nine in the Tour, and three in the Vuelta. He has proven that he can win stages of all kinds, sprints, time trials, and even mountain stages while working in support of a GC leader like Jonas Vingegaard or Simon Yates.

With the terrain in the first week of the Tour, we could see quite a few duels between Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel, both fighting for stage wins, and maybe with a little spice added by Tadej Pogačar on some of the punchier stages?

Other stage hunters include riders like Magnus Cort (EF Education–EasyPost), who has no fewer than nine Grand Tour stage wins to his name, and Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa–B&B Hotels), who recently impressed with a 2nd place overall in the Tour de Suisse, picking up strong stage results along the way. Vauquelin also won Stage 2 of last year’s Tour, and it would not be surprising to see him take another win this year.

His countryman, Romain Grégoire (Groupama–FDJ), is another exciting prospect. Grégoire showed great form in the Tour de Suisse, where he won the first stage ahead of Vauquelin and wore the leader’s jersey until Stage 5. If he manages to win a stage at this year’s Tour, it will mark his first Grand Tour stage victory

And of course there are many other notable stage hunters, and majority of the unmentioned riders probably has a dream to win a stage - and many also have the capabilities. But if i were to list them all, this blog would get very long especially as it has already gotten longer than intended 😅

So if you have read this far, thank you for reading along - and enjoy the Tour!